Cancer incidence and mortality projections 2011–2021

Cancer reports
16 May 2011
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This report identifies the pertinent trends in cancer as they relate to the new Local Health District boundaries established in New South Wales and maps the impact the disease will have on the community from now until 2021.

In NSW, research and studies of cancer and how it impacts on the population have enabled us to make considerable inroads in recent years into providing better detection, treatment and care for people with cancer.

This has seen survival outcomes significantly improve across the population.

However the population of NSW is ageing and growing at an increasing rate. The reality of this is that the burden posed by cancer will continue to increase in future years.

This report examines the most common cancers by clinical grouping and major cancer site in NSW and extrapolates trends by age group to project the number new cancers and cancer deaths in 2011, 2016 and 2021.

the population of NSW is ageing and growing at an increasing rate. The reality of this is that the burden posed by cancer will continue to increase in future years.

It also includes a comparison to the actual number of cases and deaths for each geographical region and Local Health Network and compare it to the projected number of cases and deaths for 2011, 2016 and 2021.

Actual 2006 cancer cases and deaths by cancer site and local health network are provided to enable comparison of the proportional breakdown by five year time period.

Ultimately, if we are able to project the growing risk cancer poses to the population, we can use this information to help determine priorities, to better allocate health resources and to identify new and emerging issues that may not have been encountered in NSW previously.

It is important to note when examining the trends and statistics contained in this study that that the accuracy of the projections is impacted by a range of factors including:

  • the accuracy of the health related population projections;
  • variablity in five year age specific rates over time by age, sex and cancer type or clinical grouping; and
  • the cancer risk profile of the geographical area for each cancer type.

Please also note that the accuracy of projections decline in certainty over time i.e. projections for 2011 are likely to be more accurate than projections for 2021.

Key findings include:

  • New cases of cancer in NSW are increasing on average by 5,000 every five years.
  • The number of people being diagnosed with cancer directly correlates to the growing population in NSW.
  • The majority of death rates are declining, particularly for high volume cancers.
  • The number of deaths attributable to cancer is increasing.

In 2006, the most common cancers
in New South Wales were:

Cancer type Number of
people
diagnosed		 Proportion of
all cancer
cases
Prostate 6,200 18%
Bowel* 4,718 13%
Breast 4,192 12%
Melanoma 3,574 10%
Lung 3,183 9%

In 2021, the most common cancers
in New South Wales will be:

Cancer type Number of
people
diagnosed		 Proportion of
all cancer
cases
Prostate 9,862 19%
Bowel* 6,707 13%
Breast 5,402 11%
Melanoma 5,708 11%
Lung 4,088 8%

* Bowel cancer refers to cancers of the large bowel; this is also referred to as colorectal cancer and is comprised of cancers of the colon, rectum and anus grouped together.

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